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Israel Matters To You. Here’s Why…

April 17, 2008

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Israel Matters To You. Here’s Why…By Brock Grisham.

This article was provided exclusively to libNOT.com.

Israel is a land in conflict: it always has been and always will be. As
a crossroads for the world’s major religions, Israel continues to be at
the forefront of global affairs. Regardless of your personal beliefs or
political affiliation, Israel matters to you. Here’s why…

Israel is the world’s beloved buffet. Much like weekend diners that are inexplicably drawn to gracious amounts of irresistible delicacies, the world is beating a path to Israel’s front door. History has shown us that Israel is THE most sought after piece of real estate.

To determine the future, we must first understand the past. I’ve done my best to condense several thousand years of Middle Eastern history in order to establish a starting point. We need a common frame of reference as we dig into the problems plaguing this ancient, yet timeless country we know today as Israel.

In reality, many things haven’t changed much since the 12th Century BC. This is when the land of Israel began coming into its own. Although historical references go back several millennium, the 12th Century BC sets the stage as the Jewish people begin establishing a series of individual kingdom states. Approximately 500 years later, in the 7th Century BC, Arabs begin arriving and staking their claims. We move on to the Roman Empire, the Byzantines, the Crusaders and then the Ottoman Empire. This brings us to the year 1922.

As a result of WWI, the Ottomans relinquish control through a number of
mandates, treaties and conferences. The League of Nations (now the
United Nations) grants authority over the Middle East to a number of
world powers, most notably, Britain. The British establish a homeland
for the Jewish people, who begin flooding back into the region, despite
strong opposition from their Arab neighbors. In 1948, Israel declares
independence. They fight and win a number of major military victories
over their Arab neighbors in the following decades despite overwhelming
odds. This creates two parcels of land: The West Bank and the Gaza
Strip.

During this time until present day, races and religions and rivals of
every imaginable kind come and go. Kings and commanders wage battles.
Rulers broker power through deceit and deception. Inhabitants migrate
to and fro. Present day Israel is a prime example that the more things
change, the more they stay the same.

So who really cares about a small sliver of land that’s mostly desert?
The answer is everyone! Did you already forget the small history lesson
I just gave you? It’s OK, because the answer is far more complex.
Regardless, both history and current world affairs demonstrate that
everyone wants a spot at the world’s most popular buffet, and they are
willing to die for it.

Anything that happens in Israel is amplified throughout the world ten
fold. Much of this is because religion is the basis for the majority of
conflicts in the region. By the time the news of a bombing, shooting or
riot is broadcast to the world, it has amplified like ripples in a pond
as the world’s inhabitants react. Whether a Muslin suicide bomber or an
Israeli Air Strike, protests erupt, voices speak out and violence
ensues.

Reaction and Rage interwoven with Religion is the face of violence in
the Middle East. Call it the “3 R’s”. We’ve seen examples of this at
home - most memorable are the suicide attacks on 9/11 (based on our
presence in Saudi Arabia during the first Gulf War). The Arab world no
more cares for the United States in Iraq or Afghanistan than they care
for Jews in their own back yard.

Make no mistake, much of the world makes absolutely no distinction
between Christians (Americans) and Jews (Israeli’s). Regardless of your
religion or absence of, a proxy war is being waged against you, your
family and your country every day. Israel just happens to be a more
convenient target. But that is slowly changing.

The same terrorists conducting attacks in Israel have come across
the pond. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda are all here and have gained
access through our southern sieve via new found support in Mexico,
Central America, Venezuela and the Caribbean. If you think I’m
paranoid, do your own research or ask an FBI agent - this is reality.
They are poised to attack depending on circumstances in the Middle East,
specifically Israel. They have the money, resources and sympathizers
needed. The stage is set.

So what would trigger these groups into all out war against the US from
within? The same things that would cause the Middle East to explode
into an all out war: Israel. There are three specific trigger points
that would cause an immediate world wide reaction: the Territories, a
direct attack on Israel or a direct attack by Israel.

The Territories: During Mark Twain’s visit to the area known as
Palestine in 1867, he described the region as: “A Land for a People for
A People without a Land”. The area was dry, unfertile and sparsely
populated by very few Jews, Arabs and nomads. Palestine is simply a
location and has never been a nation, a people, a religion of a tribe.
Much like the United States is today; it’s the fruit salad on the salad
bar: a loose mixture of people, customs and cultures.

The struggle for an independent Palestinian state was a reaction to the
influx of Jews around the turn of the century in conjunction with
various mandates. As the influx of Jews grew to a flood in the
following years, so did Arab opposition. Ironically, an independent
state has been offered and rejected multiple times by the Arab people.
These include: Trans Jordan (1922), UN Partition Plan (1947), Oslo
Accords (1993), Wye River (1998), Annapolis Conference (2007) and more
than a dozen other lesser known attempts to appease Arab hostilities.

In a surprise attack against Israel in 1949 (one year after declaring
statehood), Egypt took control of the Gaza Strip and Jordan control of
the West Bank territories. These territories were home for the same
Arabs that rejected their own Palestinian statehood, refused Israeli
citizenship and instead decided to await Arab liberation and elimination
of the state of Israel that never came. Ironically, both Egypt and
Jordan held these territories until 1967 but did nothing to assimilate
their fellow Arabs into their own societies. But why?

Because the same people who rejected state-hood and still await the
destruction of Israel are the riff-raff of the Arab world. Plagued by
the 3 R’s, these “refugees” are the bottom of the barrel. No one wants
them, and with good reason: these people send pregnant women as suicide
bombers, teach jihad to their children through cartoons, fire rockets
into neighborhoods, murder Olympic athletes and overwhelming voted a
terrorist group into office (Hamas). They even use role players to
simulate casualties when the cameras are running: I’ve watched a “dead”
man fall off a gurney and jump back on. Considering that these things
come from a limited population in a limited area, one must ask: do these
people really deserve a state of their own?

While I can not answer that for you, one can’t blame the Egyptians and
Jordanians for not assimilating these people into their society, much
less the Israeli’s! Besides, allowing these people to assimilate and
give up their “refugee” status would remove the Arab rally cry against
Israel. Many have argued that these “refugees” do not deserve statehood
until they can stop the violence and prove themselves worthy of a
peaceful government. Regardless, until the “Palestinian” people are
able to accomplish this, the territories will continue to be a magnet
for terrorists and foreign fighters wishing to wage war against Israel
and the US, both abroad and at home.

Make no mistake, the “Palestinians” blame you and I for both their
situation and subsequent actions. Because America supports Israel, they
make no distinction between the two. WE ARE TARGETS! Limited
Palestinian autonomy and land-for-peace has only increased violence in
the region. This has allowed millions of dollars in aid to be funneled
to personal bank accounts that’s used to purchase additional weapons and
support a wider insurgency, increasing the threat to both Israel and the
US.

The Reality of Attack: If attacked, Israel is poised to set the Middle
East ablaze. It is common knowledge that Israel has nuclear weapons.
This alone has done more to deter an all out invasion than anything
else.

History has shown us that Israel is subject to attack at any time.
Things haven’t changed much in recent history and current conditions
have made this prospect even more likely. While a number of scenarios
are possible, it very likely that Israel’s neighbors will seek to
destroy her very soon. This is based on recent chatter, the
assassination of Hezbollah commander Mughniyeh and Israel’s upcoming
60th anniversary.

The most likely candidates are terrorist groups operating from the
territories such as Islamic Jihad, Al Queada, Hamas and Hezbollah. Now
in possession of chemical weapons and advanced munitions, these groups
seek to demoralize the population and bring the country’s civilian
activities to its knees.

While an attack by these groups would come as no surprise, their methods
are changing with the technology provided to them. Armed with advanced
anti-tank missiles, these bands of Arab fighters destroyed a respectable
number of Merkava tanks during the last Lebanon war. Much more
effective than IED’s, these can be brought to bear against any target
of their choosing. Rockets and missiles with advanced guidance systems
are also able to target more specific locations, such as schools,
hospitals and neighborhoods. Chemical weapons must be used in volume to
be effective, but can also go a long way in spreading fear and panic.

It’s easy to see how this could spill over into an all out war.
Insurgents fire the opening salvo, Israel retaliates; the Arab world
becomes inflamed and launches an all out attack. Bogged down protecting
its citizens from terrorists with these weapons, Israel is forced to
fight a battle on two fronts (not to mention the battle of world
opinion). Terrorist groups on US soil then take identical action,
attacking from within as the US mobilizes to assist Israel.

Syria and Iran are also likely perpetrators of an attack. Syria has
been assembling an increasing number of troops along its border, digging
massive bunker complexes and fortifying her infrastructure with modern
anti-aircraft systems. While this activity in itself won’t shock any
analyst worth their salt, it does imply significance in conjunction with
other developments. Syria knows something and is preparing for it.

Syria has also enlisted help from Russia to augment her aging military
resources. The great bear from the North has been provided a new deep
water naval facility and employs several hundred professional soldiers
to man advanced air defense systems in strategic locations. Should
Syria ever go to war, just one rocket or bomb dropped in the wrong
location would immediately pull the Russians into the conflict, quickly
followed by the US to support her long time ally.

It has also been suggested that Syria is now home to WMD’s smuggled from
Iraq. While still a controversial theory, it’s a well known fact that
Iraq had chemical weapons and used them against soldiers and civilians.
Regardless of the source, Syria maintains one of the largest chemical
weapons programs in existence and has advanced Scud missiles armed with
a number of deadly compounds. This is an integral part of Syria’s
deterrent against an Israeli counter attack.

Used preemptively, a chemical strike would kill thousands of civilians
in their tracks. Have you noticed that the Israeli public has increased
their drills - complete with gas mask distribution? Have you heard
about the new bunker for the Prime Minister? It’s all public knowledge,
but hints that Israel also knows something and is preparing for it.

Iran is another clear and present danger to Israel. Armed with a
massive military and a vast infrastructure, she spews propaganda and
hate like a topless blender threatening to wipe Israel off the map.
Another consumer of Russian military and civilian technology, Iran is
armed to the teeth and ready to sacrifice herself in the name of
religion.

These boisterous threats in conjunction with a secretive nuclear program
and advanced foreign delivery systems lead to one conclusion: Iran is
developing nuclear weapons. Both intelligence and common sense support
these conclusions. The Russians are building the reactors and supplying
intense military protection at these locations. Here’s a quick synopsis
of Iran’s statements regarding their nuclear ambitions: “We want nuclear
energy and vow to destroy Israel. We are open to international nuclear
inspections. We will destroy Israel and the United States. No
international inspectors allowed in Iran. What nuclear weapons program?
Death to Israel and the Americans. Iran only wants peace with the
world”.

Consumed by the 3 R’s, Iran is the largest supplier of arms to Hezbollah
and other insurgent groups located along Israel’s periphery. It is also
the largest supplier of arms to Al Queada in Iraq that are used everyday
against US troops. Iran is already waging a proxy war against both
countries. The only thing keeping Iran at bay is our presence in the
Middle East and Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons.

Israel has vowed to employ the Samson Option if faced with total
annihilation. This would unleash a massive nuclear retaliatory attack
against her enemies, essentially wiping them off the map. Estimates
place the number of nuclear weapons in Israel’s possession between 75
and 500 - I would choose the latter. Her Arab neighbors know this and
will make sure that a first strike is beyond anything we have ever seen
in the region.

No matter the flash point, an all out war against Israel in the Middle
East would quickly draw the United States into the conflict. Already
stretched thin, others such as China could seize upon the opportunity
and could easily take advantage of our involvement against multiple
adversaries. What happens in Israel matters to you!

Preemptive Strike: Last year, the Israeli’s launched a daring raid
against a nuclear facility located deep in the Syrian Desert. Using
spec-ops spotters on the ground and precision air strikes, the IAF
obliterated a not-so-secret facility developed by Syria with the help of
North Koreans. What would prompt Israel to risk all out war with a
preemptive attack? The answer is “Survival”.

In the Middle East, things happen fast, very fast. With little time to
react due to the compact geography of the region, the Israelis cannot
wait for their neighbors to strike first. It’s the proverbial catch 22
scenario. A prime example is the annihilation of the Iraqi nuclear
plant into the 1980’s.

Israel has lived this philosophy every day since its inception in 1948.
Whether striking the masterminds behind the Olympic massacres over a
number of years, destroying terrorist in the West Bank before they can
detonate their bombs or neutralizing nuclear facilities that may be used
against them, Israel believes that a good offense is the best defense.
What would you want your government to do if faced with the same
scenario? I would prefer the suicide bomber be detonated in his house,
not mine!

Unfortunately, preemptive strikes can only buy so much time for a
nation. Soon, it will be time to make a decision regarding Iran and its
nuclear program. Although this decision has already been made behind
closed doors, the biggest hurdle is world opinion and pressure.
Striking Iran’s nuclear program (specifically Natanz and Irak) comes
with its own set of tactical problems to include range, effectiveness
and counterstrike.

The range issue has been solved for the most part with IAF version of
the F-15 and F-16 known as the F-15i and F-16i. Boasting extended tanks
built into the fuselage, these planes can range to Iran and back with a
small payload of nuclear bunker busters. Low yield nukes mated to laser
guided smart bombs maximize results while minimizing overall weight and
drag that lead to excess fuel consumption.

Fortunately, the US controls the majority of territory between the two
countries - Iraq. The US is willing to turn a blind eye to any aerial
“incursions” or lightly protest such a trivial trespass on the world
stage to avoid complicity. It’s conceivable that covert aerial or land
based (FARP) refueling could be provided. Worst case, Israel strikes
Iran, then lands at pre-determined airfields in Iraq: the US interring
their planes and returning their pilots safely. Make no mistake, the US
will be aware of any Israeli strike against Iran.

Although Israel has purchased a large quantity of bunker buster bombs
from US suppliers recently, conventional weapons will not reach their
intended targets. Low yield tactical nuclear weapons are the best bet
and are most likely to be used. Iran knows this and has hardened its
underground facilities. However, it has wagered that Israel and/or the
US will not use nukes and knows that solid hits on all critical targets
are almost impossible due to the number of widely dispersed targets.

While striking targets with nuclear weapons presents obvious risks, the
residual debris (fallout) would be minimized via the nature of the
weapons used. Bunker Busters are designed to penetrate then explode
within the target by either timing or fuse detection. Any underground
explosions would be neatly contained and could be excused to the
international community as fallout from the underground facilities
themselves.

A counterstrike by the Arab world would soon follow, especially if
Russian forces are hit in the initial strike. Considering their
military’s proximity to critical targets, this is nearly unavoidable.
The only mitigating factor is the presence of American forces in the
region, neatly surrounding Iran on two fronts. Fueled by the 3 R’s,
this is not enough to prevent an all out Arab retaliation.

Regardless of the scenario, the world will associate the US with any
Israeli action before the dust settles. We will be forced to fight a
broader war, again stretching our military overseas and our economy at
home. We become official members of the “Catch 22 Club” and join Israel
at the buffet while the world pokes and prods at us with ravenous
hunger.

Putting it all Together: While not a prophet, I believe that a war of
aggression will be fought against Israel before years end. Starting
with insurgents from the Gaza Strip and terrorists from the Golan, we
will see a massive barrage of rocket fire into Israeli towns and
villages. Israel will push back into the Gaza Strip and Lebanon,
inadvertently allowing the Arab fighters to unleash their latest and
greatest weapons with a vengeance. This will be a long, drawn out
campaign that will be eventually won by the Israelis, but at a high
price.

While a comprehensive global response to these actions alone is
questionable, this may finally prompt a response from Syria: a latent
reaction from last year’s air-strike. Lebanon has always been considered
home turf by the Syrians - a deep Israeli incursion may prompt this
action on its own. This would instantly garner world attention and
action.

I also see the clock ticking for preemptive action against Iran. Within
the next year or two, I expect Israel to strike against a number of
Iranian nuclear and military targets. This will most likely include
sabotage, special operations and precision aerial attacks. This could
indeed be the flash point that ignites the entire world against Israel
and the United States.

Almost anything can be justified in the name of religion: our enemies
have been instructed by their god to refuse us as friends and kill us
where they find us. They make no distinction between Israeli and
American, Jew or Christian, soldier or civilian. The same enemies we
continue to fight abroad are now in our back yard and are poised to
strike at a moment’s notice.

For hundreds of years, events in Israel have driven and defined the
course of nations. Now more than ever, our global economy and
instantaneous communications link every person, religion and country
into a complex conglomerate. As a global buffet and crossroads for the
world, this is especially true when it comes to Israel. Israel matters
because events in the Middle East have a direct result on our future as
Americans and the world.

The author, Brock Grisham, (nom de Plume) is a long time, trusted friend of libNOTSr.

Brock is a Senior IT Security Manager for the Department of Defense. He
served as a US Army Ranger under the Special Operations Command in the
90’s. He enjoys spending time with his wife and young daughter,
collecting firearms and computers.

Other articles written for libNOT.com by Brock Grisham: China & USA: The War Has Begun - Is Anyone Listening - Is Anyone Aware?

All rights reserved. Copyright (c) 2008, libNOT.com. Contact: admin@libnot.com for reprint permission.

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